Salon has a great article on the effects of file sharing on the music industry. According to Professor Stan Liebowitz, it isn't hurting them. I suspect file sharing and CD ripping and burning will actually help the music industry. Here's why -- I buy a moderate number of CDs a year, maybe four or five. Usually, I'll hear something on the radio, find out the group, and see if the rest of their stuff is any good through some place like MP3.com or through the sample tracks on Amazon.com. It used to be i'd see if I could find the group on Napster, but that option is dead. If I like a couple songs, I'll buy the CD. I then rip it, take the tracks I like, put them into playlists to listen to while I'm on the computer, and burn them to CDs along with other songs I like so that I have CDs with just the songs I like. Those go in the car, and usually stay there, where they get beat to an eventual skippy death, while the production CDs stay safe in tehir jewel cases. I can remake the mix at any time, with little effort or time. If the one song is the only good thing from that group, I probably won't buy the CD. However, I will keep an eye out for it to be on a compendium CD like the "Now" series. Once it appears there, I ge that CD, plus a couple other one hit wonders, and I rip and burn like I would if I bought the full CD. In the interim, I'd use the Napster file until I could find the single in a form that justified the $12-$20 for the CD. File sharing doesn't replace CDs, it supplements them. CD burning is not used to steal the music, it's used to make the music into a form where I get exactly what I want on my CDs. Maybe that's what pisses off the music companies -- I'm getting music in the form I want it, not in the form they want to present to me.

Technological Cycles I just watched a History Channel program on the Anaconda Mine in Montana. The Anaconda was built as a silver mine, but discovered copper instead. This was not a bad thing. It was in the post-Civil War era, and copper demand was surging. The telegraph, telephone, and electric light increased demand for copper to incredible levels. The Anaconda made millions, even as copper prices fell due to the increased supply of copper, then was smartly sold to Standard Oil for $39M. A few decades later, it was struggling as copper demand began to slide and as more discoveries increased the supply of copper. This got me thinking about the computer industry. In 1975, the computer industry was similar to the copper industry of about 1850. There was moderate demand, but not a huge demand. The computers were more expensive, because it wasn't worth automating too much of the construction of the computers since the number sold was relatively small. Then came the PC. It created a demand for more computers and businesses discovered that they could use a computer for document creation, accounting, and other tasks. Demand rose, and prices fell as supplies increased to meet the demand. Automation decreased the costs even further. Now, the desktop computer is ubiquitous. Name an office without a computer -- betcha can't. And now, it appears that demand may be on the beginning of a slide. Computer speeds are way up, but computers of the last year or two are so fast that the life cycle of the machine has been stretched. Windows 9X and NT have adapted to be relatively flexible and reliable with most hardware configurations, making it worthwhile to add or upgrade hardware versus getting a whole new machine. The simplicity of improvements isn't turnkey yet, but it's closer. The implications are becoming interesting. We're reaching a point where a computer and network connection are like an automobile -- everyone has one, or nearly everyone. The auto market doesn't really grow very much. The market is close to saturated and the end result is tight competition for your sale. Just price won't do it any more for most people. The computer market is reaching that point as well. Watch for a Sony Vaio PC Coach Leather Special Edition soon, and the Gateway Eddie Bauer Special.. The question is whether PCs will follow the Automotive Model or the Anaconda model. I think we'll be seeing more along the lines of the automotive model -- refinement and consistency across the lines, with new technology easily integrated into the newer packages as solid incentive to upgrade. The current PC market slump will recover, but not to the highs of a few years back. We're reaching saturation. Sidenote: If cars followed the PC model of open standards, you could plug a Chevy engine into a Ford chassis with Dodge instruments and seats. That could be loads of fun...

Justice Scalia, at his finest...

I am a busy boy... my apologies if anyone feels neglected.